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Last Sunday afternoons matchup between South East Melbourne and Sydney has provided the platform for this week’s 3×3, as the squeeze for the top six and first ever play-In tournament gets crazier by the week.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley discuss Melbourne’s hot streak, the MVP battle and which team in the top six has the biggest concerns as we hit Christmas weekend and turn to the finish line.
Have Melbourne United left their run too late?
Kane Pitman: The easy answer is to say yes.
Currently 8-11, Melbourne is set to embark on a seven-game road trip that includes two trips to New Zealand, a flight to Sydney, a voyage to Adelaide and a cruise to Tasmania. They are 5-2 with Shea Ili in the lineup and 3-9 without him which may be one of the big “what ifs” of the season. In addition to a long winning streak, they will need teams like Tasmania, Adelaide and Perth to fall in a hole. If only they didn’t collapse in the final minutes against Tasmania and Perth in recent weeks….
Olgun Uluc: Probably.
Does Melbourne United look like a top-4-level team now that they’re finally healthy, with Shea Ili running the show again and a functional backup centre? I think so.
But, they’ve also played 19 games — the most of any team — dropped some extremely winnable ones, and the majority of the remainder of their schedule is on the road. It’s not impossible for them to knock on the door of that top 6, and they’re playing at a level that probably warrants them being a part of it, but it’ll be a tall order.
Peter Hooley: Any other season you would say that United are no chance of making finals and competing for a title, but with the extended play-in format, they have a chance.
Finally at full strength, Melbourne United look like a completely different outfit than the one who struggled mightily at the beginning of the season. With Shea Ili back in the lineup and Marcus Lee producing, they look a real threat to chase sixth spot. However, they will play nearly the entire month of January on the road, which will be a challenge.
Has Mitch Creek vaulted to MVP frontrunner after his 46-point effort vs. Sydney?
Kane Pitman: Not yet, but the next 2-3 weeks could do it with multiple South East Melbourne stars hit with injury.
Unfortunately, basketball fans were robbed of the Creek vs. Cooks matchup we all wanted to see, but it is possible both players boosted their MVP case in very different ways. Sydney head coach Chase Buford described Cooks as “probably the best Creek matchup in the league” and for now at least I still have him a hair ahead. Postgame Creek said, “I hope he gets better quickly so we can have a battle”.
Hear, hear. The teams are scheduled to meet on January 4 and 29, both in Sydney.
Olgun Uluc: No, but it puts him right on Xavier Cooks’ tail.
However which way you look at it, Mitch Creek’s 46-point performance was incredible, and will more than likely not be topped this season. He scored in a variety of ways but, more importantly, lifted his team to an emotional — and important — win in Gippsland.
Right now, though, I have him second to Cooks, who’s the best player on the best team in the NBL. The race is nowhere near decided, so the opportunity is absolutely there for the race to continue to go through ebbs and flows until the season comes to an end.
Peter Hooley: It’s hard to argue that the impressive performance from Creek hasn’t catapulted him into the lead of the MVP race.
He played nearly every minute of the double OT thriller and delivered for his team in big moments. With Xavier Cooks’ injury pending, Creek may have just edged clear as the favourite for MVP ever so slightly. With two key starters for SEM injured for a few weeks, Creek will log heavy minutes going forward and be relied upon to reproduce huge performances. In my opinion, the MVP is one of the few individual awards where team performance matters, so the Phoenix need to find a way to keep the wins ticking over.
Which team currently in the top six has the most concerns?
Kane Pitman: It has to South East Melbourne due to health.
At 11-7, the Phoenix are in a solid spot to make the play-in, but some turbulent moments lie ahead. Sandwiched in between two Brisbane games is a road trip that includes Adelaide, Tasmania, Sydney and Cairns in consecutive games. The Phoenix don’t play in Victoria again until January 16th. If healthy, I had South East Melbourne as my No. 2 seed, but you can’t blame them if they are upset with the basketball gods right now. Simon Mitchell has previously discussed the importance of finishing top two, which would be an incredible achievement now if they can pull it off.
Olgun Uluc: The South East Melbourne Phoenix.
It’s tough to see a world where the Phoenix drop out of the top 6, but they’ve just lost three key rotation players — Gary Browne (calf) and Ryan Broekhoff (hip) for at least two weeks, and Zhou Qi (family reasons) for potentially the rest of the season — so are now in a difficult place as they try to lock in home court advantage.
With multiple key guys missing to start the season, Simon Mitchell’s team went 1-5, and so there’s a fear that being so undermanned could see them drop a few spots in the standings. They’re already below the league average defensively, and they’ll play the next few weeks without their floor general in Browne, their utility guy in Broekhoff, and best rim protector in Zhou; this could be a tough stretch.
Peter Hooley: I hate to say as I’ve been on the train since the start of the season, but the Taipans are concerning me right now with their last few games. What had me so high on Cairns’ success is their ability to takeover games in a swift moment and put up some huge numbers on the scoreboard. However, as of late that hasn’t happened as much as it did early in the season, and at times they seem to struggle to get out of a hole when they’re in one. I still believe they are definitely not a team you want to play in a semifinal series, but for right now, they need to find another avenue to claw out wins when the shots aren’t falling.
