Pièces complète 2 euro commémorative et accessoires protection pièces

Gold, Past And Future – Seeking Alpha

Gold, at various times and to various degrees, has correlated with inflation. Inflation is most commonly measured according to the CPI (consumer price index), but since the CPI does not capture the effect of the prevailing interest rate we like to model inflation by comparing the CPI to the 2-year Treasury yield (CPI:2y T-yield).
The following two charts, show the Fed funds rate (FFR), gold price, and the CPI:2y T-yield ratio (inflation) during the great financial crisis of 2008-9, and during the recent and present pandemic induced recession.
Gold, Past And Future - Seeking Alpha
Gold, Past And Future - Seeking Alpha
On the charts above, notice how in both 2008 and 2020, the FFR dropped …stabilized…then dropped to the zero-bound where it remained. Notice also that both gold and the CPI:2y T-yield ratio (inflation) trended upward in 2009.
It would not be unreasonable to expect that, in the present situation, gold and inflation might behave in a similar fashion to 2008-9 where both trended higher(dashed-lines on the chart above).
However, when we pull back and look at the big picture (chart below), a question arises; with both inflation (CPI:2y T-yield) and the gold price at such extremes, is it possible that the market has simply compressed the 2008-2013 rally into a few months? If so, then gold and our inflation measure could be heading lower from here, like occurred between 2012-2015 . If not, then we could see gold double in price like it did in 2009-11 (chart below).
Gold, Past And Future - Seeking Alpha
Technically, when the RSI of gold rises above the 80 level (red markings below), gold tends to retreat; like it has done since last July. However, the MACD has formed a bull-cross below the 20 level (blue markings below),which has correlated with rising gold prices in the past (chart below).
Gold, Past And Future - Seeking Alpha
In the short-term, there is room for the momentum indicators to move higher, but there is
Gold, Past And Future - Seeking Alpha
The dollar and reverse repo study supports the technical study in that gold has more up-side room left as the reverse repo/gold correlation drops back toward the mean (negative); for now, reverse repo and the dollar are dropping, while gold is rising. The dollar/reverse repo correlation is solidly positive, so if the reverse repo starts to rise, the dollar will too and gold will then tend to go down. (chart below)
Gold, Past And Future - Seeking Alpha
In summary: Gold, the Fed funds rate, and inflation (relative to the 2y T-yield) are repeating the pattern from 2008-9, which implies that gold will rise over the next several years. Short-term, technically, and in relation to the US dollar/reverse repo market, gold is close to overhead resistance (1900, and 1960) which could cause a medium-term pullback to support (1750).
From our subscribers:
I am SO VERY thankful for the discovery of this site, and the wisdom and knowledge I have gained ...

I have not seen this type of analysis anywhere else. Please keep up the awesome work! – James
Happy ANG subscriber here. I believe them to be the best broad market analysts on seeking alpha. “
Best here in seeking alpha…@ANG Traders . Best of the best!
It is probably the only report of its type on the planet when you think about it.
Take advantage of our14-day free trial and stay on the right side of the market and Away From the Herd.
This article was written by
Disclosure: I am/we are long GDX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

source

A propos de l'auteur

Avatar de Backlink pro
Backlink pro

Ajouter un commentaire

Backlink pro

Avatar de Backlink pro

Prenez contact avec nous

Les backlinks sont des liens d'autres sites web vers votre site web. Ils aident les internautes à trouver votre site et leur permettent de trouver plus facilement les informations qu'ils recherchent. Plus votre site Web possède de liens retour, plus les internautes sont susceptibles de le visiter.

Contact

Map for 12 rue lakanal 75015 PARIS FRANCE